Peer-Reviewed Publications | Edmund K.M. Chang Home Page

Storm track variability and trends:

Chu, C. X.-Q. Yang, X. Sun, X. Ren, E.K.M. Chang, J. Fang, and H. Hu, 2023: Impacts of Strong El Niño–Southern Oscillation Events on Wintertime Northern Hemisphere Storm Tracks in Two Pacific Decadal Oscillation Phases during 1950–2010. Sustainability, 15, 16565, doi: 10.3390/su152416565

Chang, E.K.M., Y. Pan, W. Wang, and C. Zheng, 2022: Developing and evaluating week 2 and weeks 3-4 outlook tools for extratropical storminess. Frontiers in Earth Sci., 10:963779, doi: 10.3389/feart.2022.963779.

Zheng, C.*, E.K.M. Chang, H. Kim, M. Zhang, and W. Wang, 2021: Subseasonal prediction of wintertime Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclone activity by SubX and S2S models. Weather and Forecasting, 36, 75-89, doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-20-0157.1

Yau, A.M.W.*, and E.K.M. Chang, 2020: Finding storm track activity metrics that are highly correlated with weather impacts. Part I: Frameworks for evaluation and accumulated track activity. J. Climate, 33, 10169-10186.

Ma, C.-G.*, E.K.M. Chang, S. Wong, R. Zhang*, M. Zhang, and A. Del Genio, 2020: Impacts of storm track variations on wintertime extreme precipitation and moisture budgets over the Ohio Valley and Northwestern United States. J. Climate, 33, 5371-5391.

Zheng, C.*, E.K.M. Chang, H. Kim, M. Zhang, and W. Wang, 2019: Subseasonal to seasonal prediction of wintertime Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclone activity by S2S and NMME models. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 124, 12057-12077. Doi: 10.1029/2019JD031252

Wang, J., H.-M. Kim, E.K.M. Chang, and S.-W. Son, 2018: Modulation of the MJO and North Pacific storm track relationship by the QBO. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 123. Doi: 10.1029/2017JD027977

Wang, J., H.-M. Kim, and E.K.M. Chang, 2018: Interannual modulation of Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks by the QBO. Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 2786-2794. Doi: 10.1002/2017GL076929

Ma, C.-G.*, and E.K.M. Chang, 2017: Impacts of storm track variations on winter time extreme weather events over the continental U.S. J. Climate, 30, 4601-4624. Doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0560.1.

Guo, Y., T. Shinoda, J. Lin, and E.K.M. Chang, 2017: Variations of Northern Hemisphere storm track and extratropical cyclone activity associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation. J. Climate, 30, 4915-4935. Doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0513.1.

Wang, J., H.-M. Kim, and E.K.M. Chang, 2017: Changes in Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks under the background of Arctic amplification. J. Climate, 30, 3705-3724.

Chang, E.K.M., C.-G. Ma*, C. Zheng*, and A.M.W. Yau*, 2016: Observed and projected decrease in Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclone activity in summer and its impacts on maximum temperature. Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 2200-2208. Doi:10.1002/2016GL068172

Chang, E.K.M., and A.M.W. Yau*, 2016: Northern Hemisphere winter storm track trends since 1959 derived from multiple reanalysis datasets. Clim. Dyn., 47, 1435-1454, doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2911-8

Trammell, J., X. Jiang, L. Li, A. Kao, G. Zhang, E.K.M. Chang, and Y. Yung, 2016: Temporal and spatial variability of precipitation from observation and model. J. Climate, 29, 2543-2555, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0325.1

Chang, E.K.M., C. Zheng*, P. Lanigan**, A.M.W. Yau*, and J.D. Neelin, 2015: Significant modulation of variability and projected change in California winter precipitation by extratropical cyclone activity, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 5983-5991, doi: 10.1002/2015GL064424.

Colle, B.A., Z. Zhang, K.A. Lombardo, E.K.M. Chang, P. Liu, and M. Zhang, 2013: Historical and future predictions of eastern North America and western Atlantic extratropical cyclones in CMIP5 during the cool season, J. Climate, 26, 6882-6903.

Chang, E.K.M., Y. Guo, X. Xia*, and M. Zheng*, 2013: Storm track activity in IPCC AR4/CMIP3 model simulations. J. Climate, 26, 246-, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00707.1.

Chang, E.K.M., and Y. Guo, 2012: Is Pacific storm-track activity correlated with the strength of upstream wave seeding? J. Climate, 25, 5768-5776.

Chang, E.K.M., and Y. Guo, 2011: Comments on “The source of the midwinter suppression in storminess over the North Pacific”, J. Climate, 24, 5187-5191.

Guo, Y*, E.K.M. Chang, and S.S. Leroy, 2009: How strong are the Southern Hemisphere storm tracks? Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L22806, doi:10.1029/2009GL040733.

Chang, E.K.M., 2009: Are band-pass variance statistics useful measures of storm track activity? Re-examining storm track variability associated with the NAO using multiple storm track measures. Climate Dynamics, 33, 277-296, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-009-0532-9.

Guo, Y*, and E.K.M. Chang, 2008: Impacts of assimilation of satellite and rawinsonde observations on Southern Hemisphere baroclinic wave activity in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. J. Climate, 21, 3290-3309.

Chang, E.K.M., 2007: Assessing the increasing trend in Northern Hemisphere winter storm track activity using surface ship observations and statistical storm track model. J. Climate, 20, 5607-5628.

Chang, E.K.M., 2005: Effects of secular changes in frequency of observations and observational errors on monthly mean MSLP summary statistics derived from ICOADS. J. Climate, 18, 3623-3633.

Chang, E.K.M., 2004: Are the Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks significantly correlated? J. Climate, 17, 4230-4244.

Chang, E.K.M., and Y.F. Fu, 2003: Using Mean flow change as a proxy to infer interdecadal storm track variability. J. Climate, 16, 2178-2196.

Chang, E.K.M., 2003: Midwinter suppression of the Pacific storm track activity as seen in aircraft observations. J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 1345-1358.

Harnik, N., and E.K.M. Chang, 2003: Storm track variations as seen in radiosonde observations and reanalysis data. J. Climate, 16, 480-495.

Chang, E.K.M., and Y.F. Fu, 2002: Inter-decadal variations in Northern Hemisphere winter storm track intensity. J. Climate, 15, 642-658.

Chang, E.K.M., 2001: GCM and observational diagnoses of the seasonal and interannual variations of the Pacific storm track during the cool season. J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 1784-1800.

Storm track dynamics:

Xia, X.*, and E.K.M. Chang, 2014: Diabatic damping of zonal index variations, J. Atmos. Sci., 71, 3090-3105, doi:10.1175/JAS-D-13-0292.1.

Chang, E.K.M., and W. Lin, 2011: Comments on “The role of the central Asian mountains on the midwinter suppression of North Pacific storminess”, J. Atmos. Sci., 68, 2800-2803.

Chang, E.K.M., 2009: Diabatic and orographic forcing of northern winter stationary waves and storm tracks. J. Climate, 22, 670-688.

Chang, E.K.M., and Y. Guo*, 2007: Dynamics of the stationary anomalies associated with the interannual variability of the mid-winter Pacific storm track – the roles of tropical heating and remote eddy forcing. J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 2442-2461.

Chang, E.K.M., and P. Zurita-Gotor, 2007: Simulating the Seasonal Cycle of the Northern Hemisphere Storm Tracks Using Idealized Nonlinear Storm Track Models. J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 2309-2331.

Chang, E.K.M., 2006: An idealized nonlinear model of the Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks. J. Atmos. Sci., 63, 1818-1839.

Zurita-Gotor, P., and E.K.M. Chang, 2005: The impact of zonal propagation and seeding on the eddy-mean flow equilibrium of a zonally varying two-layer model. J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 2261-2273.

Harnik, N., and E.K.M. Chang, 2004: The effects of variations in jet width on the growth of baroclinic waves: Implications for midwinter Pacific stormtrack variability. J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 23-40.

Chang, E.K.M., S. Lee, and K.L. Swanson, 2002: Storm track dynamics. J. Climate, 15, 2163-2183.

Chang, E.K.M., 2001: GCM and observational diagnoses of the seasonal and interannual variations of the Pacific storm track during the cool season. J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 1784-1800.

Chang, E.K.M., and I. Orlanski, 1993: On the Dynamics of a Storm Track. J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 999-1015.

Extratropical cyclones, baroclinic waves, and wave packets:

Guo, Y., T. Shinoda, B. Guan, D.E. Waliser, and E.K.M. Chang, 2020: Statistical relationship between atmospheric rivers and extratropical cyclones and anticyclones. J. Climate, 33, 7817-7834.

Zheng, M.*, E.K.M. Chang, and B.A. Colle, 2019: Evaluating U.S. East coast winter storms in a multi-model ensemble using EOF and clustering approaches. Monthly Weather Review, 147, 1967-1987.

Wirth, V., M. Riemer, E.K.M. Chang, and O. Martius, 2018: Rossby wave packets on the midlatitude waveguide – A review. Mon. Wea. Rev., 146, 1965-2001, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-16-0483.1

Zheng, M.*, E.K.M. Chang, B.A. Colle, Y. Luo, and Y. Zhu, 2017: Applying fuzzy clustering to a multi-model ensemble for U.S. east coast winter storms: Scenario identification and forecast verification. Wea. Forecasting, 32, 881-903.

Souders, M.B., B.A. Colle, and E.K.M. Chang, 2014: The climatology and characteristics of Rossby wave packets using a feature-based tracking technique. Mon. Wea. Rev., 142, 3505-3527, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-13-00371.1.

Souders, M.B., B.A. Colle, and E.K.M. Chang, 2014: A description of an automated approach for feature-based tracking of Rossby wave packets. Mon. Wea. Rev., 142, 3528-3548, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-13-00317.1.

Zheng, M.*, E.K.M. Chang, and B.A. Colle, 2013: Ensemble sensitivity tools for assessing extratropical cyclone intensity and track predictability. Wea. And Forecasting, 28, 1133-1156.

Chang, E.K.M., M. Zheng,*, and K. Raeder, 2013: Medium range ensemble sensitivity analysis of two extreme Pacific extratropical cyclones. Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 211-231, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-11-00304.1.

Chang, E.K.M., and S. Song*, 2006: The seasonal cycles in the distribution of precipitation around cyclones in the western North Pacific and Atlantic. J. Atmos. Sci., 63, 815-839.

Chang, E.K.M., 2005: The impact of wave packets propagating across Asia on Pacific cyclone development. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 1998-2015.

Chang, E.K.M., 2005: The role of wave packets in wave/mean flow interactions during Southern Hemisphere summer. J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 2467-2483.

Harnik, N., and E.K.M. Chang, 2004: The effects of variations in jet width on the growth of baroclinic waves: Implications for midwinter Pacific stormtrack variability. J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 23-40.

Chang, E.K.M., 2001: The structure of baroclinic wave packets. J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 1694-1713.

Chang, E.K.M., 2000: Wave packets and life cycles of baroclinic waves: Examples from the Southern Hemisphere summer season of 84/85. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 25-50.

Chang, E.K.M., and D.B. Yu**, 1999: Characteristics of wave packets in the upper troposphere. Part I: Northern hemisphere winter. J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 1708-1728.

Chang, E.K.M., 1999: Characteristics of wave packets in the upper troposphere. Part II: Hemispheric and seasonal differences. J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 1729-1747.

Chang, E.K.M., and I. Orlanski, 1994: On Energy Flux and Group Velocity of Waves in Baroclinic Flows. J. Atmos. Sci., 51, 3823-3828.

Orlanski, I., and E.K.M. Chang, 1993: Ageostrophic Geopotential Fluxes in Downstream and Upstream Development of Baroclinic Waves. J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 212-225.

Chang, E.K.M., 1993: Downstream Development of Baroclinic Waves as Inferred from Regression Analysis. J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 2038-2053.

Chang. E.K.M., 1992: Resonating Neutral Modes of the Eady Model. J. Atmos. Sci., 49, 2452-2463.

Climate change:

Chang, E.K.M., A.M.W. Yau*, and R. Zhang*, 2022: Finding Storm Track Activity Metrics that are Highly Correlated with Weather Impacts. Part 2: Estimating Precipitation Change Associated with Projected Storm Track Change over Europe. J. Climate, 35, in press. Doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0259.1

Chang, E.K.M., 2018: CMIP5 projected change in Northern Hemisphere winter cyclones with associated extreme winds. J. Climate, 31, 6527-6542, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0899.1

Chang, E.K.M., 2017: Projected significant increase in the number of extreme extratropical cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere, J. Climate, 30, 4915-4935, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0553.1

Colle, B.A., J.F. Booth, and E.K.M. Chang, 2015: Review of historical and future changes of extratropical cyclones and associated impacts along the U.S. east coast. Current Climate Change Reports, 1, 125-143, doi:10.1007/s40641-015-0013-7.

Chang, E.K.M., 2014: Impacts of background field removal on CMIP5 projected changes in Pacific winter cyclone activity, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 119, 4626-4639, doi:10.1002/2013JD020746.

Maloney, E.D., S.J. Camargo, E. Chang, et al., 2014: North American climate in CMIP5 experiments: Part III: Assessment of twenty-first-century projections, J. Climate, 27, 2230-2270, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00273.1.

Chang, E.K.M, 2013: CMIP5 projection of significant reduction in extratropical cyclone activity over North America. J. Climate, 26, 9903-9922, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00209.1.

Chang, E.K.M., Y. Guo, and X. Xia*, 2012: CMIP5 multimodel ensemble projection of storm track change under global warming. J. Geophys. Research, 117, D23118, doi:10.1029/2012JD018578.

Wave/mean flow interactions:

Xia, X.*, and E.K.M. Chang, 2014: Diabatic damping of zonal index variations, J. Atmos. Sci., 71, 3090-3105, doi:10.1175/JAS-D-13-0292.1.

Yang, X.*, and E.K.M. Chang, 2007: Eddy-zonal flow feedback in the Southern Hemisphere winter and summer. J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 3091-3112.

Yang, X.*, and E.K.M. Chang, 2006: Variability of the Southern Hemisphere split flow – a case of two way reinforcement between mean flow and eddy anomalies. J. Atmos. Sci., 63, 634-650.

Chang, E.K.M., 2005: The role of wave packets in wave/mean flow interactions during Southern Hemisphere summer. J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 2467-2483.

Chang, E.K.M., 1998: Poleward propagating angular momentum perturbations induced by zonally symmetric heat sources in the Tropics. J. Atmos. Sci., 55, 2229-2248.

Chang, E.K.M., 1996: Mean Meridional Circulation Driven by Eddy Forcings of Different Time Scales. J. Atmos. Sci., 53, 113-125.

Tropical/extratropical interactions, tropical meteorology:

Quinting, J.F., C.M. Grams, E.K.M. Chang, S. Pfahl, and H. Wernli, 2024: Warm conveyor belt activity over the Pacific: modulation by the Madden–Julian Oscillation and impact on tropical–extratropical teleconnections. Weather Climate Dyn., 5, 65-85.

Stan, C., C. Zheng, E.K.M. Chang, and co-authors, 2022: Advances in the prediction of MJO Teleconnections in the S2S forecast systems. Bull. Amer. Meteoro. Soc., E1426, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0130.1

Zheng, C.*, and E.K.M. Chang, 2020: The Role of Extratropical Background Flow on Modulating the MJO Extratropical Response. J. Climate, 33, 4513-4536.

Zheng, C.*, and E.K.M. Chang, 2019: The role of MJO propagation, lifetime, and intensity on modulating the temporal evolution of the MJO extratropical response. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 124, 5352-5378.

Zheng, C.*, E.K.M. Chang, H.-M. Kim, M. Zhang, and W. Wang, 2018: Impacts of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on storm track activity, surface air temperature, and precipitation over North America. J. Climate, 31, 6113-6134, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0534.1

Wang, J., H.-M. Kim, E.K.M. Chang, and S.-W. Son, 2018: Modulation of the MJO and North Pacific storm track relationship by the QBO. J. Geophys. Res.: Atmos., 123. Doi: 10.1029/2017JD027977

Wang, J., H.-M. Kim, and E.K.M. Chang, 2018: Interannual modulation of Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks by the QBO. Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 2786-2794. Doi: 10.1002/2017GL076929

Kim, H.-M., E.K.M. Chang, and M. Zhang, 2015: Statistical-dynamical seasonal forecast for tropical cyclones affecting New York State. Wea. Forecasting, 30, 295-307, doi:10.1175/WAF-D-14-00089.1.

Chang, E.K.M., and Y. Guo*, 2008: Reply to comment by Lennart Bengtsson and Kevin I. Hodges on “Is the number of North Atlantic tropical cyclones significantly underestimated prior to the availability of Satellite observations?”, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L09811, doi:10.1029/2007GL032936.

Chang, E.K.M., and Y. Guo*, 2007: Is the number of North Atlantic tropical cyclones significantly underestimated prior to the availability of satellite observations? Geophys. Res. Letts., 34, L14801, doi: 10.1029/2007GL030169.

Chang, E.K.M., 1998: Poleward propagating angular momentum perturbations induced by zonally symmetric heat sources in the Tropics. J. Atmos. Sci., 55, 2229-2248.

Chang, E.K.M., 1995: The Influence of Hadley Circulation Intensity Changes on Extratropical Climate in an idealized model. J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 2006-2024.

Review/overview papers:

Stan, C., C. Zheng, E.K.M. Chang, and co-authors, 2022: Advances in the prediction of MJO Teleconnections in the S2S forecast systems. Bull. Amer. Meteoro. Soc., in press.

Wirth, V., M. Riemer, E.K.M. Chang, and O. Martius, 2018: Rossby wave packets on the midlatitude waveguide – A review. Mon. Wea. Rev., 146, 1965-2001, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-16-0483.1

Chang, E.K.M., S. Lee, and K.L. Swanson, 2002: Storm track dynamics. J. Climate, 15, 2163-2183.

Astrophysics:

Chang, K.M., and J.P. Ostriker, 1985: Standing Shocks in Accretion Flows onto Black Holes. Astrophysical J., 288, 428-437.

Chang, K.M., 1985: The Number of Critical Points in Polytropic Accretion onto Black Holes. Astronomy and Astrophysics, 142, 212-213.

Knapp, G.R., and K.M. Chang, 1985: Mass Loss from Evolved Stars. V. Observations of the 12CO and 13CO J=1-0 lines in Mira Variables and Carbon Stars. Astrophysical J., 293, 281-287.

Ratcliff, S.J., K.M. Chang, and M. Schwarzschild, 1984: Stellar Orbits in Angle Variables. Astrophysical J., 279, 610-620.

Chang, K.M., and N.D. Kylafis, 1983: Spectral and Temporal Effects of a Plasma Shell around an X-ray Source. Astrophysical J., 265, 1005-1020.

Yung, Y.L., G.R. Gladstone, K.M. Chang, J.M. Ajello, and S.K. Srivastava, 1982: H2 Fluorescence Spectrum from 1200 to 1700 A by Electron Impact: Laboratory Study and Application to Jovian Aurora. Astrophysical J., 254, L65-L69.

Others:

Chang, E.K.M., C.L.P. Wolfe, A.L. Stewart, and J.C. McWilliams: 2023: Comments on “horizontal gravity disturbance vector in atmospheric dynamics” by Peter C. Chu. Dyn. Atm. Oceans, 103, 101382.

Chang, E.K.M., and C.L.P. Wolfe, 2022: The “horizontal” components of the real gravity are not relevant to ocean dynamics. Scientific Reports, 12, 6027.

Mariotti, A., E.A. Barnes, E.K.M. Chang, A. Lang, P.A. Dirmeyer, K. Pegion, D. Barrie, and C. Baggett, 2019: Bridging the weather-to-climate prediction gap, EOS, 100, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EO115819

Majumdar, S.J., E.K.M. Chang, M. Pena, R. Tatusko, and Z. Toth, 2015: Planning the next decade of coordinated U.S. research on minutes-to-seasonal prediction of high-impact weather. BAMS, 96, 461-464.

Chang, E.K.M., M. Pena and Z. Toth, 2013: International research collaboration in high-impact weather prediction. BAMS, 94, ES149-ES151, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00057.1.

*: Graduate student

**: Undergraduate student