First, the International Community is essential for the resolution of conflicts in these regions. In August 2008, the absence of collective sanctions forced Georgia to quickly come to the negotiating table. On August 16, a peace agreement was signed between Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. On August 26, Russia recognized the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. In unison with the West, US President George W. Bush called on the Kremlin to “reconsider this irresponsible decision” but this was not followed by any concrete measures. Conversely, countries around the world reacted strongly to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in order to isolate Putin on the international scene: on February 27, in a joint action, the European Union, the United Kingdom, the United States and Canada announced that they would prevent the Russian Federation’s Central Bank from using its foreign assets.
Therefore, Russia is being challenged, but that is not enough to make Putin back down. Russia was already under sanctions since the annexation of Crimea in 2014. However, it is not impossible that the severity of the new sanctions will force Moscow to seek a negotiated solution. If a world war were to break out, the imbalance would be stark between, potentially, Nato forces and Moscow’s troops. It will surely not be able to assert its power to the end as it did in Georgia because the international community does not seem to want to let go.
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What future for the war in Ukraine? Conclusions from Georgia and new elements
A few days ago, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned NATO and the United States of the “serious” and “real” danger of a third world war. Knowing this, Ukraine and its partners must add diplomatic levers to the sanctions. That is why, in an interview with ABC on 7 March, Ukrainian President Zelensky quickly said he was ready for a “compromise” on the status of the separatist territories in eastern Ukraine. He also said that he tempered his position on NATO. In response, Russia has also called for the withdrawal of Nato troops from Romania and Bulgaria and an end to Western military cooperation with Ukraine. As in Georgia, it seems that the solution must involve consideration of Russia’s interests, because Russia doesn’t seem ready to back down.
Nevertheless, it is also worth asking whether harsher sanctions should be applied. For example, the dependence of several EU member states on Russian hydrocarbons prevents the organization from agreeing on a collective embargo over one of Moscow’s main sources of income.
Finally, the case of war crimes, mainly committed by the Russian armed forces, must also be addressed. For several weeks now, NGOs have been deploring atrocities, executions of civilians and rapes committed by the russian army. In order to ensure a lasting resolution to the conflict, it will be essential to collect the testimonies and bring the perpetrators to a court.