Russia’s role: Political objectives
- Driven by political objectives rather than material security
- 2007 Munich Security Conference: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nTvswwU5Eco
- Putin insisted on the urgent need to counter NATO’s further eastward expansion to protect his political objectives
Russia’s Role: Regime Survival
Before Putin’s invasion, both countries had significant economic development and democratic contagion -> Putin’s fear of regime survival
Does Ukraine and Georgia have the potential now to survive without a Russian alliance system?
Georgia’s economic growth averaged 10.5% per year between 2005 and 2007 (right)
In 2021, right before the Ukraine invasion, Ukrainian GDP expanded 5.9% at the end of the year (right)
America’s Role: The same for Ukraine and Georgia
- The US ignoring warnings from Russia and Western policy experts
- George W. Bush + Georgia and Ukraine = potential valued US political and military allies
- Bush urged NATO in 2008 to admit Ukraine and Georgia -> Further NATO expansion beyond the already admitted European countries would pose a threat to Russian national interest
- French and German wariness delayed Ukraine and Georgian admittance -> the Nato summit affirmed that both countries would eventually achieve that status …
America’s Role: Similar Patterns?
- However, since the 2008 NATO summit in Bucharest, neither Georgia nor Ukraine succeeded in securing a NATO Membership Action Plan (MAP) -> Unlikely for them to join in the foreseeable future … -> Putin invades
Overall similarities: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-KQDn-oFStw