I have offered a SCH 102 (SBU 102 for University Scholars) section on Uncertainty twice so far (Spring 2019, in collaboration with Donovan Finn, and Spring 2020 by myself). An abridged version of the syllabus for Spring 2020 – as modified in mid-March in response to COVID-19 – is below.

 

COURSE DESCRIPTION

Uncertainty is a fact of life. On matters small and large, we make individual and societal decisions in the face of diverse sources of uncertainty. Sometimes we explicitly acknowledge uncertainties, but often not. The perception of uncertainty is an important component of how the public forms opinions about policy implications of science, and there has been much recent work on this topic in the realms of climate change, medicine, biotechnology, and nanotechnology, among others. Various ways of categorizing uncertainty have been developed by thinkers in different fields of inquiry, and ‘uncertainty’ and related words and concepts (such as ‘risk’) have different meanings to different people in different contexts. In this course we will think explicitly about uncertainty, and whether/how communicating more clearly about uncertainty can help decision-making in many contexts, with a focus on public policy decisions with a substantial scientific component.

COURSE GOALS AND LEARNING OBJECTIVES

• Improve critical thinking by developing evaluative, problem-solving, and expressive skills.
• Enhance group communication skills through discussions, small-group work, presentations or debates.
• Develop intellectual curiosity and better understand the role of a student in an academic community.
• Identify and describe different sources of uncertainty
• Apply that understanding to personal and policy decision-making

COURSE REQUIREMENTS

• Class participation. This means that you have to read your assigned text carefully before class and come prepared for discussion.
• Class writing and presentation assignments.
• All Scholars students are required to fill out an end of the year survey that provides information about their involvement within the Scholars program and on campus in general. More details will be sent to the students during the semester.

REQUIRED TEXT AND READINGS

Readings will be provided via Blackboard.

CLASSROOM EXPECTATIONS AND INFORMATION

• Class attendance and participation: Attendance and active class participation are required.
• Classroom Environment: As members of the seminar, you are expected to read, discuss, and think critically about seminar topics and your responses to them. This does not mean that you are not supposed to disagree or have emotional reactions to the material, but you should also be willing to engage those reactions – and your classmates – in respectful and thoughtful ways. As a class community we should always be mindful of different people’s experiences. If at any time you have concerns about the material or class discussions, please speak to me.

EVALUATION AND GRADING

The First-Year Seminar (102) is a 1-credit course for which students will receive a grade between A-F.

For this section, grades will be based on:

2 essays at 15% each = 30%

Presentation – 15%

Final paper – 25%

Class Participation – 30%

 

ESSAY 1 ~400 word essay on an example of your almanac uncertainty and effort to resolve it – how did you find an answer you trust, and how much did it reduce your uncertainty?

ESSAY 2 ~400 word essay on an example of political use of uncertainty. A recent example is preferred. What sort of uncertainty is being used, and what sort of uncertainty is being produced?

You are also welcome to use a different format for these ‘essays’; Write a poem? Make a short video or podcast? Creativity encouraged.

 

For the final project, you will use concepts we discuss in class this semester to work through some aspect of the uncertainty involved in making a public policy decision.

The project has two parts:

1) A presentation (<10 minutes) that outlines the policy decision, your process of analyzing some uncertainty in it, and gives your classmates information they need to help you finish your analysis.

2) A short paper (1,200 to 1,500 words) summarizing the policy decision, your process of analyzing uncertainty in it, and making a formal policy recommendation based on concepts from this class.

 

Please use good scholarship in all your classwork: cite your sources, and represent what they say fairly.

Please include in your project how you might take a Bayesian (or other statistical) approach to gaining certainty about the issue in question.

For your short in-class presentation, prepare a slideshow of approximately 1 slide per minute that outlines your topic and how you analyzed the uncertainty your topic. Be sure that your background information is sufficient that your classmates can help you identify new aspects, approaches, etc. Sign up for a day early in the semester!

For the paper, you will document the information in your presentation, plus you will also make a policy recommendation based on the analysis. In other words, if you were an expert advising the mayor or president or governor, what would you recommend, and how does your analysis support this decision?

Your final paper will be due APRIL 9th at 5pm via Blackboard.

 

UNIVERSITY SCHOLARS SEMINAR

10-WEEK SCHEDULE

SPRING 2020

Week of	Topic	Assignments
1/30	Introductions and exploring the concept of uncertainty	For Today: Opening survey
2/6	Categorizing uncertainty	For today: Read Lindley Ch 1 ESSAY 1 DUE
2/13	Tobacco	For today: Read Merchants of Doubt Ch1
2/20	Fisher	For today: Read Lindley Ch3&5 ESSAY 2 DUE
2/27	Bayes	For today: Read Silver Ch 8
3/5	Presentations
3/12	Presentations
3/19	NO CLASS- SPRING BREAK	NO CLASS- SPRING BREAK
3/26	NO CLASS- SPRING BREAK Presentations	NO CLASS- MORE SPRING BREAK
4/2	Presentations	See Blackboard ‘Assignments’
4/9	Presentations Wrap-up	See Blackboard ‘Assignments’ Today: FINAL PAPERS DUE
4/16	Wrap-up Backup week	Today: FINAL PAPERS DUE In case of a snow day

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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