September 2022 News and Press from SoMAS

Sep 30, 2022

Photo above: The 2021 Class of Stony Brook University 40 Under 40 were honored on September 13 at Tribeca Rooftop in New York City where over 150 alumni and friends joined Stony Brook University President Maurie McInnis, PhD. This group included SoMAS alumni Rachel Coccia (MA, 2017) and Geoff Bansen (BS, 2010).

Here’s the news and press from September 2022 at the School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences at Stony Brook University!

 

Dr. Hyemi Kim has received a new award, from NOAA, in support of the project “Deep Learning Hybrid Dynamical-statistical Model for US Precipitation Subseasonal Forecasting“, in the amount $514,775, for the period 09/01/2022 – 08/31/2025.

The goal of this project is to develop a Deep Learning Hybrid Dynamical-Statistical model for implementation at the NOAA CPC in support of post-processing subseasonal products to improve forecasting of US precipitation. The Deep Learning Hybrid model incorporates (i) bias-corrected MJO forecasts and (ii) nonlinearity of MJO teleconnections using Deep Learning (DL) approaches. A recent study by the PI has demonstrated the effectiveness of the DL-bias correction in reduction of MJO forecast errors in S2S and SubX reforecasts. Deep learning can also successfully capture the nonlinear sources of predictability and help identify the forecasts of opportunity for tropical-extratropical teleconnections. The existing DL approaches will be applied to UFS and other dynamical models. We will provide (i) bias corrected MJO forecast that will help CPC forecasters in the decision making process and (ii) US precipitation forecasts with the DL hybrid model based on the bias corrected MJO to be tested in a pseudo-operational setting at CPC. The DL hybrid model will provide post-processed model that supports CPC precipitation outlooks for weeks 1-4 and can be added as new tools for CPC forecasters to use in support of official products. The CPC Co-PI will be responsible for guiding and facilitating the testing and transition of project deliverable to CPC and coordinate with NOAA Climate Test Bed (CTB).

Dr. Hyemi Kim has also received another NOAA grant, through George Mason University entitled “Diagnostics Package for MJO-Teleconnections”, in the amount $68,650, for the award period 08/01/2022-07/31/2024

For the S2S time scale, the remote impact of patterns of variability through mechanisms known as teleconnections represents a source of predictability and the extratropical teleconnections of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), the dominant mode of intraseasonal variability in the tropics, is the main contender. To understand how MJO teleconnections can be used to improve forecast skill, significant efforts have been dedicated in recent years to developing diagnostics for characterizing the mechanisms and properties of teleconnections and their impact on weather.  Recognizing the importance of MJO teleconnections for the S2S forecast skill, the MJO and Teleconnections sub-project of the WMO/WWRP/WCRP/S2S Prediction Project, organized most of the MJO-teleconnections diagnostics available in the community into a collection of diagnostics suitable for operational forecasts and applied them to all models that publish their S2S forecast into the S2S database (Stan et al., 2021). The suite of diagnostics is designed to evaluate models’ ability to predict the MJO teleconnections to the Northern Hemisphere (NH) geopotential height distribution through the tropospheric (STRIPES index, pattern correlation coefficient, relative amplitude) and stratospheric pathways (Rossby wave flux, polar vortex, height of the polar cap) and the forecast skill of these teleconnections. Another set of diagnostics is focused on the MJO teleconnections to the NH storm tracks and surface air temperature distribution. The main objective of the project is to expand the above diagnostics and to unify them into a portable package that can be applied to evaluation of UFS. The diagnostics package will allow a direct comparison of UFS to other S2S operational forecast systems. The diagnostics package will be compliant with METplus software requirements for an easy integration with METplus.

Dr. Brian Colle has received a new award from NOAA in support of the project “Implementation of an Ensemble Sensitivity Tool to Better Assess Uncertainty in Mid-Latitude Extreme Weather Forecasts“, in the amount $375,632, for the project period 9/1/2022-8/30/2025.

There are a growing number of ensemble systems available to forecasters; however, the benefits of using these ensembles in operations have not been fully realized. Forecasters working under strict time constraints often do not have time to thoroughly interrogate and investigate the wealth of information contained in an ensemble forecast. In a recent CSTAR project, Stony Brook University (SBU) developed an Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis (ESA) tool that has been running operationally at EMC using either GEFS, GEFS+CMC, or EC ensembles. This tool helps forecasters better understand the origin of the ensemble uncertainty. This will help with forecaster situational awareness and Impact-based Decision Support, as well as potentially help with NOAA reconnaissance targeting efforts during the winter. The overarching goal of this proposed project is to make the current SBU ESA tool operational while testing and including additional mid-latitude hazards, such as heavy precipitation, strong winds, extreme cold, heat, and wind. We will focus on the days 3-7 and 8-10 given the interest in extremes in the medium and long-range forecasts using the same set of ensembles as the clustering (GEFS, CMC, and EC). We will develop an interactive way for forecasters to choose a variable and region of interest. This expanded ESA tool will be validated objectively to determine if it is targeting the correct upstream areas, and it will also be evaluated within the Hydrometeorological Testbed, in particular the Winter Weather Experiment and Extended Forecast Experiments. Forecasters will learn how to utilize this tool in concert with our recently developed clustering tool as well as other ensemble tools. There will also be forecaster training to learn how to use the ensemble sensitivity tools in operations using online resources, modules, testbed discussions, and outreach during NWS operational workshops.

Dr. Lesley Thorne has received a new award from DOE (via Duke University) in support of the project “Wildlife and offshore wind (WOW): A system approach to research and risk assessment for offshore wind development from Maine to North Carolina“, in the amount $394,513, for the period 6/1/22 – 5/31/27.  A technical summary is provided below.  Way to go, Lesley!

Wildlife and Offshore Wind (WOW) will advance the state of offshore wind development along the U.S. east coast by addressing urgent environmental and protected species data gaps that directly constrain construction activities. Our team will begin with developing risk and research frameworks, and will then execute research programs targeted at data needs for specific regions, species, and wind energy projects within these frameworks. Proposed areas to pilot this research framework include MA/RI and NY/NJ. WOW will take a holistic approach to advance the development of offshore wind development: from integrating the input and advice of developers, regional planning bodies, state and federal agencies (broadly defined as stakeholders herein), to conducting primary research, to creating analytical and risk assessment frameworks, the outcomes are directly relevant to both current and future support of offshore wind development.

Dr. Edmund Chang has received a new award from NOAA in support of the project entitled “Diagnosing S2S Precipitation Biases and Errors Associated with Extratropical Cyclones and Storm Tracks over the Continental United States Using the GFDL SPEAR Model” in the amount $376,868, for the project period 9/1/2022 – 8/31/2025.

Abstract:
Extratropical cyclones, which make up the mid-latitude storm tracks, are the key driver producing cool season precipitation in the CONUS. Hence, biases and errors in cyclone and storm track prediction, or in the structure of cyclone related precipitation, can give rise to biases in model predicted precipitation. S2S prediction models can have biases either in the mean climate or in the prediction of climate variability. Hence, precipitation biases and errors over the CONUS can arise due to model biases and errors in: 1) the prediction of climate drivers such as ENSO, MJO, polar vortex and the QBO; 2) the mid-latitude teleconnection patterns associated with these climate modes; 3) the response of extratropical cyclones to these large scale teleconnections; and 4) the precipitation structure associated with extratropical cyclones. Preliminary results by the PIs’ groups have shown that S2S model simulations exhibit several of these biases.

This project will diagnose extratropical cyclone related precipitation biases, including biases in extreme precipitation, using GFDL’s SPEAR model simulations. We will evaluate the model bias in winter cyclone frequency/intensity using reanalysis data and examine the linkage between cyclone frequency/intensity bias and precipitation bias at the S2S time scale. Precipitation biases will be assessed using rain gauge- and satellite-based precipitation estimates. Model biases will be stratified according to geographical regions, cyclone paths and evolution, as well as cyclone intensity. Biases in model cyclone and precipitation response to the modes of climate variability discussed above will be quantified. We will diagnose the cyclone related synoptic precipitation structural errors in model simulations using observations and identify the key processes causing these structural errors.

Model sensitivity studies will be conducted to provide insights on how these biases may be reduced. Sensitivity to model resolution, sea surface temperature biases, biases in tropical forcing, biases in the large-scale circulation, and biases in model dynamics and physics will be assessed using model intervention experiments. The outcome from this work will inform GFDL’s model development team on how to improve cool season precipitation simulation and prediction. On top of that, our results will provide a detail account of the contribution of different kinds of extratropical cyclones to the mean and extreme precipitation over CONUS, as well as how well SPEAR simulates these contributions. Selected analyses will be conducted to examine biases exhibited by CFSv2 and GEFSv12 subseasonal predictions.

This project aims to identify and understand model precipitation biases and systematic errors associated with extratropical cyclones and storm tracks, which are the key physical drivers for precipitation over the CONUS during the cool season, through data analysis and global modeling experiments. While the numerical experiments will be conducted using the GFDL SPEAR model, our diagnostic studies will also be conducted on CFSv2 and GEFS simulations to identify biases and systematic errors in these models. Diagnostic tools developed in this project can also be applied to diagnose model errors and biases in future model simulations and predictions, including those of the subseasonal UFS. Our results will provide insights to model developers on the sources of cool season precipitation biases, informing future model development, thus this project is clearly relevant to the competition and to NOAA’s mission.

 

 

Latest Publications 

The Worm Lab of Dr. Sharon Pochron just published a new article, Exposure to Roundup Increases Movement Speed and Decreases Body Mass in Earthworms, that has five of our undergraduate students on the author line, and one of our past graduate students: Sharon T Pochron*, Mateo Mezic, Samantha Byrne, Samy Sasoun, Alex Casamassima, Melisa Kilic, Amanda Nuzzo, and Charles-Edouard Beaudet. We used cameras to watch earthworm behavior and found that those living with a realistic dose of Roundup displaced more soil and lost more body mass than those living in uncontaminated soil. We published this work in a special edition of Frontiers in Environmental Science (Toxicology, Pollution and the Environments).

Graduate student Nathan Hirtle and members of the Thorne Lab including Julia Stepanuk, and Eleanor Heywood have a new paper in Methods in Ecology and Evolution, titled Integrating 3D models with morphometric measurements to improve volumetric estimates in marine mammals. It presents an interesting and novel method to look at whale body condition using drone images and 3D modeling.

Other Publications in September

Bukvic, A., Mandli, K., Finn, D., Mayo, T., Wong-Parodi, G., Merdjanoff, A., Davis, C., Haacker, R., Morss, R., O’Lenick, C., Wilhelmi, O., Lombardozzi, D., & Alland, J. (2022).  Advancing Interdisciplinary and Convergent Science for Communities: Lessons Learned Through the NCAR Early-Career Faculty Innovator Program. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

Jung, M. I., Son, S. W., Kim, H., & Chen, D. (2022). Tropical modulation of East Asia air pollution. Nature Communications, 13(1), 1-8.

Bopp, J., Olin, J. A., Sclafani, M., Peterson, B., Frisk, M. G., & Cerrato, R. M. (2022). Contrasting Trophic Niche and Resource Use Dynamics Across Multiple American Horseshoe Crab (Limulus polyphemus) Populations and Age Groups. Estuaries and Coasts, 1-19.

Yang, K., Davidson, R. A., Blanton, B., Colle, B., Kolar, R., Nozick, L. K., … & Dresback, K. (2022). Evaluation of Hurricane Evacuation Order Plans: Hurricane Florence Case Study. Natural Hazards Review, 23(4), 05022010.

Kramer, B., Jankowiak, J., Nanjappa, D., Harke, M., & Gobler, C. (2022). Nitrogen and phosphorus significantly alter growth, nitrogen fixation, anatoxin-a content, and the transcriptome of the bloom-forming cyanobacterium, Dolichospermum. Frontiers in Microbiology, 13.

Lin, Q., Chen, Y., & Zhu, J. (2022). A comparative analysis of the ecological impacts of Chinese tuna longline fishery on the Eastern Pacific Ocean. Ecological Indicators, 143, 109284.

 

Press Mentions

Honolulu Civil Beat: A Dirty Cesspool Secret And A Cautionary Tale For Hawaii

  • In the summer of 2021, our WAI team visited our partners at Stony Brook University in Long Island, New York. Stony Brook’s Center for Clean Water Technology is part of the same national Decentralized Wastewater Innovation Cohort with WAI and four other organizations across the country, and they have done extensive research on wastewater and nutrient pollution. What we learned on Long Island would prove to be a cautionary tale for Hawaii.

Seafood News: Scientists Recover Collapsed Clam Population and Water Quality in Shinnecock Bay

  • Today scientists from Stony Brook University’s School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences (SoMAS) announced the culmination of a decade of science in a paper published in Frontiers in Marine Science, an international peer-reviewed journal, which describes a novel restoration approach used in Shinnecock Bay that has led to a 1,700 percent increase in the landings and densities of hard clams in that estuary.

Times Beacon Record: SBU’s Arjun Venkatesan gathers information from wastewater

  • Arjun Venkatesan, Associate Director for the New York State Center for Clean Water Technology at Stony Brook University, has gathered information from wastewater plants to search for traces of opioids and other chemicals.

Sag Harbor Express: Clam Restoration Has Spearheaded Ecological Reversal In Shinnecock Bay, Study Shows

  • Shinnecock Bay has seen a sweeping reversal of once chronic misfortunes in the last 10 years, spurred seemingly simply by the depositing of millions of clams in just two well-chosen corners of its sandy bottoms, scientists from Stony Brook University attest in a new peer-reviewed paper released on Tuesday, August 30.

Southampton Press: Lake Agawam Is, Slowly But Surely, Getting Healthier, But Work Remains

  • But Christopher Gobler — a Stony Brook University professor who is also the director of the New York State Center for Clean Water Technology — along with a group of Southampton Village residents and local government officials, have refused to give up on the lake.

Times Beacon Record: Environmentalists, residents rally in Head of the Harbor to block private docks

  • The Rally to Block the Docks, organized by Head of the Harbor resident Lisa Davidson, attracted dozens of local residents, environmentalists and Stony Brook University students.

Dan’s Papers: Shinnecock Bay Clams Up as Decade of Restoration Efforts Succeed

  • “99.5 percent. Sometimes numbers are used as hyperbole, but that is how much the landings of hard clams had declined from the 1970s to 2011 in Shinnecock Bay,” said Stony Brook University Professor of Marine Science Chris Gobler, the lead author of the study.

Watts Up With That?/Blog: The Latest from the Experts on New York’s Climate Act Implementation

  • I have prepared an overview summary of all the comments made during the Update on Public Hearings and Comments agenda item and wrote an article highlighting relevant comments.  In this regard, Paul Shepson Dean, School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences at Stony Brook University talked about mis-representation at 23:39 of the recording.

Newsday/Opinion: Correction officers and the 1-4-7-6 rule

  • But the Stony Brook University marine scientist’s labor has also attracted political attention. In 2017, in the middle of the decade-long Shinnecock project, Gobler was driving in his car and got a phone call from then-Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo.

WSHU-FM/NPR: Stony Brook’s climate change gallery features Indigenous art to focus on environmental justice

  • Sculptures, drawings, performances and video games: Stony Brook University’s art gallery highlights the importance of water and its role in environmental justice.

Fox Weather: Scientists restore hard clam population in Shinnecock Bay

  • New York marine scientists have restored hard clam population in Shinnecock Bay. Christopher Gobler, Ph.D., Director of New York State Center for Clean Water Technology, joined FOX Weather to talk more about it.

Newsday/Editorial: Nurturing of clams brings many benefits to Shinnecock Bay

  • That’s where Stony Brook University marine scientists conducted a decadelong restoration effort to bring back a demolished population of hard clams, a historic bivalve on Long Island.

Long Island Advance: A scientific update on the bay smells

  • According to Save the Great South Bay, they have called on their colleagues at Stony Brook University School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, who are looking into the issue. Silvestri said it could be the seaweed, or it could be the red tide again, like last year.

Newsday: Wastewater a key barometer of COVID-19, scientists say

  • The lab Gobler operates through Stony Brook evaluates the Suffolk County wastewater samples and will soon take over the Nassau County samples currently handled through a commercial lab.

East Hampton Star: Water Quality Impacted by Rain, Tides, Hurricane Swell

  • C.C.O.M., which is hosting its annual family picnic at the Ford Pond House Saturday from 1 to 3 p.m., works with the Gobler Lab at Stony Brook University’s Southampton campus to keep tabs on harmful algae levels in two sites on the pond. The site at the boat ramp indicated a high risk for a toxic bloom, while the site along Industrial Road indicated a low risk.

Newsday/Op-Ed: Long Island flooding, solar panels, and the Ukraine war

  • The writer, Richard Murdocco, is an adjunct professor of environmental policy in Stony Brook University’s public policy graduate program and School of Atmospheric and Marine Sciences.

New York Times: Three Reasons for Puerto Rico’s Power Outage

  • Today, scientists are working to understand how climate change is affecting how hurricanes form and where they travel, in addition to their size and strength, said Kevin A. Reed, a climate scientist at Stony Brook University. Also ran in DNYUZ.

NBC News: Wetter and stronger: Hurricane Fiona and two typhoons drive home climate concerns

World Socialist Web Site: Hurricane Fiona triggers massive flooding and damage in Puerto Rico

  • “If you have warmer water, you’ll have more evaporation, which means you have more moisture in the atmosphere, which means you can get more precipitation,” Kevin Reed, an associate professor of atmospheric science at Stony Brook University in New York told NBC News. Also ran in WSWS.

Daily Magazine/New York Times: Three Reasons Puerto Rico Is in the Dark

  • Today, scientists are working to understand how climate change is affecting how hurricanes form and where they travel, in addition to their size and strength, said Kevin Reed, a climate scientist at Stony Brook University. Ran in the Yahoo News.

The Hill/Op-Ed: Why is Puerto Rico so vulnerable to blackouts?

  • Article co-written by Donovan Finn is an urban planner and assistant professor in the School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences at Stony Brook University.

San Juan Star Daily Star: Three reasons Puerto Rico is in the dark

  • Today, scientists are working to understand how climate change is affecting how hurricanes form and where they travel, in addition to their size and strength, said Kevin Reed, a climate scientist at Stony Brook University.

Newsday: SUNY officials to award $8.1M in training funds for offshore wind jobs

  • John S. Nader, along with Patricia Malone, associate vice president for professional education at Stony Brook University, spoke during an open discussion Tuesday on workforce development hosted by the Long Island Association’s Offshore Wind Committee.

East Hampton Star: From Septics to Sewers for Water Protection

  • According to the Stony Brook University Center for Clean Water Technologies, 70 percent of the excess nitrogen entering the village waterways comes from septic systems, while 30 percent comes from pesticides, fertilizers, stormwater, and other types of runoff.

The City: Army Corps Releases Details of Long-Awaited New York Harbor Resiliency Plan

  • Malcolm Bowman, an oceanography professor at Stony Brook University and founder of the New York-New Jersey Storm Surge Working Group, expressed some concerns of the option before the recent report came out and pointed out that the plan does not protect certain places that include important transportation and port infrastructure, such as La Guardia Airport and Governors Island. Also ran in Hero Mag and Brooklyn Daily Eagle.

Associated Press: Snap Study: ‘Climate Change’ Added 10% to Ian’s Rainfall

Washington Post: How climate change is rapidly fueling super hurricanes

  • And a preliminary analysis of Ian’s rainfall released Thursday by Stony Brook University professor Kevin Reed and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory senior scientist Michael Wehner, based on previously peer-reviewed research, found that climate change is responsible for increasing Ian’s extreme rainfall rates by 10 percent. Information repeated in this Washington Post article.

CNN: Hurricane Ian’s rainfall was a 1-in-1,000 year event for the hardest-hit parts of Florida

The Independent: Hurricane Ian – live: Tropical storm regains hurricane strength as it nears South Carolina

  • The analysis by researchers Kevin Reed of Stony Brook University and Michael Wehner of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory has not yet been peer-reviewed, but they say they used the same methodology for their study of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, which has been. Also ran on MSN.

The AU Times: Aerial Photos Capture Hurricane Ian Devastation Off Florida Coast

  • Rapid analysis, published Thursday by researchers at Stony Brook University and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, shows that human-induced climate change increased Ian’s extreme rainfall by more than 10 percent, the nonprofit Climate Signals said in an email. Also ran in the US Express News, Bharat Express News, Canada Express News, Times Express News,

Shelter Island Reporter: Town postpones wastewater presentation by Stony Brook professor: Reschedules for Oct. 1

  • Plans to continue a discussion on the Center wastewater project, originally planned for Tuesday’s Town Board work session, is now expected to occur on Tuesday, Oct. 11. Christopher Gobler, Ph.D., a professor at the School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences at Stony Brook University spoke briefly at the Sept. 27 Town Board meeting, saying he believed there was a more efficient, cost-effective way to handle wastewater from the Center instead of piping liquid waste to a treatment system planned for Manwaring Road.

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School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, SoMAS, at Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY 11794-5000, USA
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