What is C.O.M.A.P?
The COMAP research group focuses on improving the understanding and forecasting of the weather and regional climate predictions in the coastal margins of North America. Many of coastal phenomena, such as severe convective storms, tropical cyclones, precipitation within winter storms, land/sea breeze circulations, orographic flows and precipitation, and marine clouds/fog in a marine environment are challenging to forecast. These phenomena are investigated using conventional data, field study observations, atmospheric (Weather Research and Forecasting) ensembles and higher resolution runs down to large-eddy scales (~100 m), as well as the latest data assimilation (EnKF) approaches. We utilize various post-processing techniques, including machine learning, to improve forecasts of extreme weather. We also explore the communication issues with extreme weather forecasts through collaborations with social scientists. Lastly, we utilize CMIP6, statistical models, and down-scaled WRF runs to determine how extreme weather will change in a future climate.
Recent news
- (September 2024) The COMAP group was awarded a new US Forest Service award for the Model Verification and Validation for the Fire and Smoke Model Evaluation Experiment. Post-doc Nicholas Leonardo will help lead the effort.
- (June 2024) Congratulations to Nikita Agrawal, high school student from Chicago, mentored by COMAP in summer 2023, presented her “Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast across the Atlantic Basin” research at Regeneron ISEF 2024 in LA and won a Fourth Place Grand Award in Earth and Environmental Sciences Category as well as won a Science Communication Special Award from NOAA. Here is the announcement.
- (March 2024) Welcome to Dr, Joshua Carter from the University of Manchester as a new post-doc within the group. He will focus on high resolution LES runs of cloud top generating cells in winter storms.
- (January 2024) Congratulations to Christopher Fragano for completing his M.S. on the “Validation of Atmospheric Model Analyses and Short-Term Forecasts at Two Floating LIDARS to the South of Long Island, NY”
- (September 2023) Welcome new graduate students Jackson Parker (PhD student) from Hobart and William Smith Colleges and Josef Moses (5-year BS-MS program at Stony Brook).
- (September 2022): The group was awarded two new grants from NOAA: a CSTAR project “Improving Communication With Highly Vulnerable Societal Groups Through Partnerships, Audience Analysis, Crowd-Sourced Information, and Workshops and a JTTI project “Implementation of an Ensemble Sensitivity Tool to Better Assess Uncertainty in Mid-Latitude Extreme Weather Forecasts.” News about latest NOAA CSTAR grant.
- For the winters of 2020-2023 (except 2021 Covid year) the COMAP was involved in the NASA IMPACTS project studying precipitation within winter storms. Graduate students Phillip Yeh and Erin Leghart, post-doc Nicholas Leonardo were forecasters at Wallops, VA, and Brian Colle served as mission scientist and NASA P3 flight scientist. Several SBU undergraduates helped with weather balloon launches. Interviews by Accuweather and News12 about involvement with the NASA IMPACTS project.
- Check out the SBU-WRF, a real-time two-member WRF ensemble developed and maintained by the COMAP Group.
COMAP Group Photo 2024
COMAP Group Photo 2023
COMAP Group Photo 2022
COMAP Group Photo 2019
COMAP Group Photo 2018
COMAP Group Photo 2017
COMAP Group Photo 2016
COMAP Group Photo 2015
COMAP Group Photo 2014
COMAP Group Photo 2013
COMAP Group Photo 2012
COMAP Group Photo 2011
COMAP Group Photo 2010
Some Recent Conferences
20th Cyclone Workshop, 20-25 October 2024, St. Sauveur, Quebec, Canada
- Erin Leghart: Vertical Wind Shear and Turbulent Layers Within Northeast U.S. Coastal Winter Storms
- Phillip Yeh: A Climatology of Precipitation Structures Within the Cyclone Comma Head
- Brian Colle: The Environment Conditions, Evolution, and Predictability of Snow Multi-Bands
- Nicholas Leonardo: Mechanisms Causing the Growth and Decay of Snow Multi-Bands in High-Resolution Idealized Baroclinic Wave Simulations
- Joshua Carter: Predictability Challenges with Winter Storm Snowbands and Precipitation Associated with Microphysical Parameterisations
AMS Annual Conference: Presentations at: 1st Symposium on Cloud Physics, 19th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research, 28th Conference on Probability and Statistics, 23rd Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science, Conference on Weather, Water, Climate, and the New Energy Economy, 28 Jan to 1 Feb 2024, Baltimore MD
- Phillip Yeh: A Comparison of Precipitation Objects in Midwest Cyclones during IMPACTS
- Erin Leghart: The Relationship Between Turbulent Shear Layers and Precipitation Structures Within Northeast United States Coastal Winter Storms
- Austin Colman (NOAA-WPC) and Brian Colle: Advancing Situational Awareness of Forecast Scenarios through Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis
- Christopher Fragano: Validation of Offshore Winds in ERA5 Reanalysis, HRRR, and NOW-23 Analyses Using Two Floating Lidars South of Long Island, NY
- Nikita Agrawal and Brian Colle: Improving Ensemble Model Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Using Machine Learning
- Josef Moses: Risk Perceptions and Preparations for Storm Surge Flooding: Workshops with Immersive Visualizations and Stakeholder Interactions
- Christine Gilbert and Brian Colle: Investigating the Role of Community Organizations in Communicating Extreme Weather Events in New York City
AMS 20th Conference on Mesoscale Processes, 17-21 July 2023, Madison, WI
- Brian Colle and Na Zhou: Shear-Driven Turbulent Eddies within Frontal Systems Approaching Steep Terrain and the Impact on Precipitation
- Mariko Oue and Brian Colle: Microscale Updrafts Within the U.S. Northeast Coastal Snowstorms Using High-Resolution Cloud Radar Measurements
- Erin Leghart: Enhanced Layers of Spectrum Width within Northeast U.S. Coastal Storms and Their Relationship with Precipitation Structures
- Nicholas Leonardo: The Development of Snow Multi-Bands in High-Resolution Idealized Baroclinic Wave Simulations
AMS 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction,17-21 July 2023, Madison, WI
- Keenan Fryer and Brian Colle: Impact of Assimilating WSR-88D Radar Observations on Snowband Prediction within the Comma Head of Northeast U.S. Cyclone
- Nicholas Leonardo: Impact of Assimilating New York Stat MesoNet and Two Offshore LiDARs on Modeling the New York Bight Jet
AMS 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, 17-21 July 2023, Madison, WI
- Phillip Yeh: Evolution of Multiband Structures Within the 16 February 2023 Midwest Cyclone During the IMPACTS Field Campaign
- Josef Moses: A Virtual Workshop Involving College Students to Explore the Relative Role of Visualization and Stakeholder Interaction on Risk Perception
- Brian Colle: Better Utilization of Ensembles in Operations Through Clustering: An R2O Success Story
- Phillip Yeh: Variability of Cool Season Precipitation Structures Within the Cyclone Comma Head