Group Leader


Brian Colle

Professor; Division Head, Division of Atmospheric Sciences, SoMAS

       Personal Page   CV 

I have been at Stony Brook University since 1999. I received my B.S. at Ohio University (1991), M.S., Ph.D., and post-doc training at the University of Washington (1991-1999). I have an extensive background in various mesoscale processes (orographic flow and precipitation, convective storms, coastal flows, tropical cyclones, etc…), synoptic meteorology, and numerical weather prediction. I have participated in numerous field studies, such as NASA IMPACTS along the U.S. East Coast studying precipitation bands within winter storms from Jan-Feb 2020-2020, orographic precipitation during the OLYMPEX project over the Olympics Mountains of Washington State in December 2015, IMPOWR around Nantucket Island (summers 2013-2014), and the Doppler Radar for Education And Mesoscale Studies (DREAMS) in June 2013 on Long Island. I particularly enjoy research that bridges the gap between research and operational weather forecasting through a multi-year CSTAR collaboration with the National Weather Service and other NCEP operational centers. More recently, I have been interested in regional climate issues for future changes in East Coast winter storms, severe convective storms, and coastal storms and flash flooding. I served as a member of the New York City Panel for Climate Change (2015-2018) as well as Editor for the AMS journal “Weather and Forecasting” from 2005 to 2011. When I am not working, you can find me on a Long Island beach surf fishing or enjoying time with family.

Conference Presentations

Agrawal, N., Colle, B. A. 2024: Improving Ensemble Model Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Using Machine Learning. 2024 Ocean Sciences Meeting

Leghart, E., Colle, B. A., Yeh, P., 2024: The Relationship Between Turbulent Shear Layers and Precipitation Structures Within Northeast United States Coastal Winter Storms, 104th AMS Annual Meeting

Fragano, C., Colle, B. A., Freedman, J., 2024: Validation of Offshore Winds in ERA5 Reanalysis, HRRR, and NOW-23 Analyses Using Two Floating Lidars South of Long Island, NY. 104th AMS Annual Meeting

Yeh, P., Colle, B. A., Finlon, J., McMurdie, L., DeLaFrance, A., Garcia. V., 2024: A Comparison of Precipitation Objects in Midwest Cyclones during IMPACTS. 104th AMS Annual Meeting

Coleman, A., Nelson, J., Colle, B. A., Wilson, T., Lankowicz, S., 2024: Advancing Situational Awareness of Forecast Scenarios through Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis. 104th AMS Annual Meeting

 

Recent Publications

Leonardo, N. M., and Colle, B. A., 2024: Analysis of Snow Multibands and Their Environments with High-Resolution Idealized Simulations. Mon. Wea. Rev. 152, 925-943 1

Oue, M., Colle, B. A., Yuter, S. E., Kollias, P., Yeh, P., Tomkins, L. M., 2024: Microscale Updrafts within Northeast US Coastal Snowstorms Using High-Resolution Cloud Radar Measurements. Mon. Wea. Rev. 152, 865-889

Kiel, B. M., Colle B. A., 2024: Comparison of Clustering Approaches in a Multimodel Ensemble for US East Coast Cold Season Extratropical Cyclones. Weather and Forecasting 39, 461-484

Ghanbari, M., Dell, T., Saleh, F., Chen, Z., Cherrier, J., Colle, B. A., Hacker, J., Madaus, L., Orton, P., Arabi, M., 2024: Compounding effects of changing sea level and rainfall regimes on pluvial flooding in New York City. J. Natural Hazards, 1-24

Colle, B. A., Yeh, P., Finlon, J. A., McMurdie, L., McDonald, V., DeLaFrance., A., 2024: An Investigation of a Northeast US Cyclone Event Without Well-Defined Snow Banding During IMPACTS. Mon. Wea. Rev. 151, 2465-2484

    Current Students


    Nicholas Leonardo

    Postdoctoral Associate

      CV   

    I joined COMAP as a Ph.D. student in the fall of 2014, after completing my M.S. in Marine and Atmospheric Sciences at Stony Brook.  My Ph.D. research involved the predictability of North Atlantic tropical cyclones, focusing on cases in which ensemble systems, such as the ECMWF and GEFS, poorly forecast the track.  More specifically, I analyzed any systematic model biases potentially contributing to these different forecast “busts”. 

    I graduated in the summer of 2019 and am now a post-doc at Stony Brook.  As part of the IMPACTS project, my work involved analyzing the development of snow bands in idealized simulations, with the goal of understanding what mechanisms and environmental parameters cause convection in the comma-head region to organize into elongated bands.

    My current work uses a recent fire weather model called QUIC-Fire, demonstrating its capabilities to reproduce the prescribed burns of the Konza Campaign of 2023/2024.

    Conference Presentations

    N. M. Leonardo, B. A. Colle, and D. A. Stark, 2015: Mesoscale Evolution of an Extreme Precipitation Event Over Long Island on 13 August 2014. 16th Conference on Mesoscale Processes, Boston, MA. https://ams.confex.com/ams/16Meso/webprogram/Paper274867.html

    N. M. Leonardo, and B. A. Colle, 2017: Analysis of a Multi-Model Ensemble to Assess the Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Tracks with Large Errors over the Western Atlantic. AMS 97th Annual Meeting, Seattle WA. https://ams.confex.com/ams/97Annual/webprogram/Paper313368.html

    N. M. Leonardo, and B. A. Colle, 2017: Validation of a Multi-Model Ensemble for Tropical Cyclone Forecasts Over the Western North Atlantic. AMS 97th Annual Meeting, Seattle WA. https://ams.confex.com/ams/97Annual/webprogram/Paper313318.html

    N. M. Leonardo, and B. A. Colle, 2018: An Investigation of the Along-Track Bias in the ECMWF Ensemble for Transitioning North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones. 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Ponte Vedra, FL.https://ams.confex.com/ams/33HURRICANE/webprogram/Paper339904.html

    N. M. Leonardo, and B. A. Colle, 2018: An Investigation of Large Track Errors of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones. 29th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/ 25th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Denver, CO. https://ams.confex.com/ams/29WAF25NWP/webprogram/Paper345598.html

    N. M. Leonardo, and B. A. Colle, 2022: Idealized Baroclinic Wave Simulations and Field Observations to Explore Convective Multi-Bands Within the Comma Head of Winter Storms. American Geophysical Union, Chicago, IL.https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm22/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/1151574

    N. M. Leonardo, and B. A. Colle, 2023: Impact of Assimilating New York Stat MesoNet and Two Offshore LiDARs on Modeling the New York Bight Jet. 28th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Madison, WI. https://ams.confex.com/ams/WAFNWPMS/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/425226

     

    Recent Publications

    Leonardo, N. M., and Hameed, S, 2015: Impact of the Hawaiian High on Interannual Variations of Winter Precipitation over California. J. Climate, 28, 5667-5682.   

    Leonardo, N. M., and B. A. Colle, 2017: Verification of Multimodel Ensemble Forecasts of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones.  Wea. Forecasting, 32, 2083-2101.

    Leonardo, N. M., and B. A. Colle, 2020: An Investigation of Large Along-Track Errors in North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone ECMWF Ensemble Forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 148, 457-476.  DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-19-0044.1.

    Leonardo, N. M., and B. A. Colle, 2021: An Investigation of Large Cross-Track Errors in North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones in the GEFS and ECMWF Ensembles. Mon. Wea. Rev., 149, 395-417.  DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-20-0035.1.

    Phillip Yeh

    Ph.D. Graduate Student

      CV    

    I joined COMAP in the fall of 2019, after completing my M.S. in Atmospheric Science at Rutgers University, New Jersey. My current research focuses on mesoscale snowbands and other precipitation structures in the cyclone comma head, and will include IMPACTS field measurements taken during the winters of 2019-20, 2021-22, and 2022-23. Through both observations and modeling, my research goal is to develop an updated conceptual model of precipitation structures in a cyclone-relative frame, and to better understand the underlying dynamics involved in the occurrence, structure, and predictability of these features, in winter storms in the Northeast U.S. My research includes the use of a new algorithm to identify and isolate these precipitation structures in radar reflectivity.

    Conference Presentations

    Recent Publications

     

    Erin Leghart

    Ph.D. Graduate Student

      CV 

    I joined COMAP in the Fall of 2020 after earning a B.S. in Atmospheric Science at the University at Albany, SUNY. My research interests include winter weather, ice microphysics, radar meteorology, and airborne atmospheric research. My current research utilizes data from the Ka-Band Scanning Radar (KASPR) located at the Stony Brook Radar Observatory on campus. During winter storms KASPR often observes horizontal layers of enhanced spectrum width, which we hypothesize are generated by wind shear and/or microphysical processes. My goal is to investigate the processes which lead to the development of these layers, what storm environments the layers occur most frequently, and if they have any relation to snow band development and evolution. My research is supported by the NASA Investigation of Microphysics and Precipitation for Atlantic Coast-Threatening Snowstorms (IMPACTS) campaign.

    Conference Presentations

    Recent Publications

    Josef Moses

    M. S. Graduate Student

      CV

    I joined COMAP in Fall 2021 in my Junior year of undergrad at Stony Brook, working on my B.S. in Atmospheric Sciences. I furthered my involvement when I moved into my accelerated B.S./M.S. program in 2022. My research focuses on the human aspects of the weather, namely how people understand and perceive extreme weather risks and whether they decide to take action. We are exploring the use of 2 unique but complementary tools to understand how they influence risk perceptions: storm surge flooding visualizations and and ethics-based discussion tool called the Ethical Matrix. We hypothesize that the visualizations support making weather risks “feelable” and more concrete and that the Ethical Matrix supports more inclusive group decision making. The goal of my research is to investigate these tools to see if they are useful for encouraging productive worry about risk and increase intentions to take protective actions from storms. I am also part of a CSTAR project focusing on understanding how vulnerable communities in New York City receive and understand weather information.

    Conference Presentations

    J.M. Moses, B.A. Colle, J.R. Hathaway, E.J. Bojsza, S.J. Davis, K.E. Rowan, A.L. Hills, E.C. Duesterhoeft, S.E. Brennan, 2023: Risk Perception and Preparation for Storm Surge Flooding: A Virtual Workshop with Visualization and Stakeholder Interaction. AMS 22nd Annual Student Conference, Denver CO. https://ams.confex.com/ams/103ANNUAL/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/422732

    J.M. Moses, B.A. Colle, J.R. Hathaway, E.J. Bojsza, S.J. Davis, K.E. Rowan, A.L. Hills, E.C. Duesterhoeft, S. Boorboor, A.E. Kaufman, S.E. Brennan, 2023: A Virtual Workshop Involving College Students to Explore the Relative Role of Visualization and Stakeholder Interaction on Risk Perception. 32nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Madison, WI. Outstanding Poster Presentation Student Award Winner. https://ams.confex.com/ams/WAFNWPMS/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/425639

    J.M. Moses, B.A. Colle, J.R. Hathaway, E.J. Bojsza, S.J. Davis, K.E. Rowan, A.L. Hills, E.C. Duesterhoeft, S. Boorboor, A.E. Kaufman, S.E. Brennan, 2024: Risk Perceptions and Preparations for Storm Surge Flooding: Workshops with Immersive Visualizations and Stakeholder Interactions. AMS 104th Annual Meeting, Baltimore, MD. https://ams.confex.com/ams/104ANNUAL/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/434996

    J.M. Moses, C. Gilbert, R. Li, B.A. Colle, 2024: Investigating the Role of Community Organizations in Communicating Extreme Weather Events in New York City. AMS 104th Annual Meeting, Baltimore , MD. https://ams.confex.com/ams/104ANNUAL/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/435496

    Recent Publications

    Boorboor, S., Kim, Y., Hu, P., Moses, J. M., Colle, B. A., & Kaufman, A. E. (2024). Submerse: Visualizing storm surge flooding simulations in immersive display ecologies. IEEE Transactions on Visualization and Computer Graphics, 30(9), 6365–6377. https://doi.org/10.1109/tvcg.2023.3332511

    Colle, B. A., Hathaway, J. R., Bojsza, E. J., Moses, J. M., Sanders, S. J., Rowan, K. E., Hils, A. L., Duesterhoeft, E. C., Boorboor, S., Kaufman, A. E., & Brennan, S. E. (2023). Risk Perception and Preparation for Storm Surge Flooding: A Virtual Workshop with Visualization and Stakeholder Interaction. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 104(7), E1232–E1240. https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-22-0145.1

     

    Jackson Parker

    Ph.D. Graduate Student

      CV

    I joined COMAP in the Fall of 2023 after completing a B.S. in Geosciences from Hobart and William Smith Colleges in Geneva, NY. While completing my undergraduate degree I was a research intern at the Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean, and Ecosystem Studies where I studied global trends in lightning frequency using a ground based network. Additionally, I have completed research projects in microclimates and case studies of severe convective events. 

    My current research interests are tropical cyclone induced hazards such as storm surge, wind, and inland flooding and their connections to climate change. Specifically my work uses an approach which couples climate and circulation models to produce future estimates of hurricane induced storm surges. Additionally, I am interested in mesoscale extreme precipitation events with tropical and subtropical systems, machine learning approaches to improve precipitation and storm surge forecasts, and understanding in-season gaps of tropical cyclone activity. When I’m not working, you may find me fly fishing Long Island or playing guitar in one of the on-campus musical groups. 

    Conference Presentations

    • Evaluating Regional and Global Trends in Lightning Stroke Density with the World-Wide Lightning Location Network”, 21st Annual Student Conference, AMS Annual Meeting 102, Houston, Texas, January 2022.

    Recent Publications

    Joshua J. Carter

    Postdoctoral Associate

      CV

    I joined COMAP in the spring of 2024 as a postdoctoral associate. My path toward research began at the University of Leeds, UK, where I completed my B.S. and M.S. in Theoretical Physics. In 2023 I gained a PhD from the University of Manchester, UK on the topic of mixed-phase ice particle growth mechanisms in numerical simulations. My doctoral research examined how mathematical descriptions of hydrometeors and their interactions can affect precipitation development within mesoscale bands. These structures are often poorly captured by numerical models, leading to inaccurate forecasts of severe snow distribution and intensity. Contributing sources of uncertainty are mixed-phase processes, whose rates depend on particle features that are often omitted from microphysics schemes entirely. My work investigated novel parameterizations of these important dependencies, including ice-habit, capacitance, and density, that will be key to representing the riming and deposition processes in future operational models.

    My current research investigates the development of cloud top generating cells (GC), which are frequently observed in the vertical radar reflectivity profiles of U.S. winter storms. Fall-streaks of precipitation are observed to emanate from the base of GC, potentially contributing to the formation of mid-level mesoscale bands where streaks merge and intensify. However, the character of GC, methods of genesis, and relative importance of fall streaks remain unclear. This work aims to understand the development of GC from a microphysical perspective, using high resolution LES numerical modeling to assess the significance of fine scale precipitation growth on the broader cloud reflectivity profile. This work utilizes data from the NASA IMPACTS campaign, including airborne cloud radar measurements.

    My professional interests include numerical modeling of physical processes, severe winter-weather forecasting, ice crystal development and parameterization. Outside the office, find me in Manhattan photographing the architecture, or in the pub watching Newcastle United.

    Conference Presentations

    • “Predictability Challenges with IMPACTS Winter Storm Snowbands and Precipitation Associated with Microphysical Parameterisations”, NASA IMPACTS Campaign Science Team Meeting, Modeling & Forecasting of Winter Storms, Boston, Massachusetts, July 2024
    • “Ice-Habit Parameterization During Riming in a Mesoscale Model Simulation of an East Coast U.S. Snowstorm”, American Meteorological Society’s 31st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/27th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP), Houston, TX, January 2022.
    • “The Influence of Ice-Habit Representation in a Mesoscale Model Simulation of an East Coast U.S. Snowstorm” International Conference on Clouds and Precipitation, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India, August 2021.

    Recent Publications

    Former Students